Introduction

Welcome to our 2025 mid-season F1 power rankings! Instead of just relying on gut feeling or raw stats, I’ve created a unique tri-factor system to get a more complete picture of who is truly performing on track.

Here’s how it works. I combined three distinct perspectives, giving each an equal 33% weight in the final score:

• The statistical model: An objective, data-driven engine that evaluates performance against expectations. It doesn’t just look at results; it considers the car’s strength and a driver’s rating coming into the season to see who is over or under-performing. It is unbiased, but can miss details that only a human can see.
• The public & experts: The collective wisdom of the F1 community. We combine ratings from fans and pundits to get a sense of the general consensus around the paddock. More biased than a statistical model, but more robust, with varied opinions from all over the world.
• My personal ranking: Finally, the human element. This is my own “eye test” rating, where I factor in the moments, mistakes, and flashes of brilliance that numbers alone can’t always capture. I’m perfect in every single way. Just kidding. Just as with the public & experts ratings, I am biased, and while I do my best to be as objective as possible, I will never be 100% neutral.

By combining the machine, the crowd, and a personal touch, I aimed for a balanced and robust ranking that irons out the biases of any single source. So, who comes out on top? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

The rankings

Oscar Piastri is the #1 driver in our rankings. He was ranked #4 by our model, #1 by journalists and the public, and tied for 4th in my personal ranking.

While his season in a dominant car has been far from stellar, he’s currently leading the Championship over his teammate, Lando Norris. Oscar looks like a stronger driver than last year, having improved on weaknesses like his quali pace, all while retaining the consistency required to lead the Championship.

Lando Norris is ranked highly by our model for his consistency, especially next to such a strong teammate. Much has been said about Piastri’s consistency, but Norris has also been quite strong in this department. Aside from his major blunder in Canada, Norris has finished in the top 4 in every other race this season.

In the public and expert rankings, Norris also ranks highly, albeit a few spots below his teammate (5th vs. Piastri’s 1st), and he’s 7th in my personal ranking. Perhaps viewers, myself included, believe Norris should be leading the Championship, and that some of his mistakes in quali have cost him valuable points 14 races into the season.

George Russell has been my #1 driver this season. With one race victory, he’s sitting just 15 points behind Max Verstappen in the World Drivers’ Championship. I believe his performances continue to be elite, and while he hasn’t yet faced the pressure of a title challenge, he has shown he has the skills to do so.

Russell loses a few points in our model because he’s paired with a weaker teammate. Kimi Antonelli may have a bright future ahead of him, but he’s still not the finished product. Our model interprets this to mean the Mercedes car is quite strong, so while George has been performing up to expectations, he isn’t necessarily exceeding them.

Finally, public and expert opinion places Russell highly—at 3rd in my data—but noticeably below Piastri and Verstappen. Is Russell underrated? Let me know what you think.

Alex Albon has been a welcome surprise this year. The Williams FW47 has had its ups and downs, but Albon has shown a knack for being in the right place at the right time to secure strong points for the team. He’s the #1 pick in our model, just ahead of Lando Norris and well above the rest of the field.

Expert and public rankings place Alex as the 6th best driver of the season, but well below the top five (Piastri, Verstappen, Russell, Leclerc, and Norris). Public opinion tends to be a bit skewed towards drivers in stronger teams, so it’s nice that our model provides a counterweight to this implicit bias.

Personally, I have Alex Albon as the 5th best driver of the season, tied with Pierre Gasly. His performances have been excellent, especially at the beginning of the year. He is well ahead of his teammate, Carlos Sainz—a driver who was highly rated last year and who many believed would easily outperform him. All credit goes to Albon for his strong performances this season.

Max Verstappen, considered by many (myself included) to be the best driver in the world, finds himself in a strange position in these mid-season rankings. His 5th-place spot may seem wrong, but there are multiple reasons he’s lost points.

Our model ranks Max all the way down in 10th, but it’s important to remember that it heavily considers the expectations placed on each driver. Last season, Max was incredible, winning his fourth consecutive World Championship and beating Lando Norris in emphatic fashion. It’s precisely because of this that our model is so tough on him; while he has been extremely good this season, the expectations were sky-high. Against that backdrop, his 10th place in Spain, 9th in Hungary, and 6th in Bahrain are viewed as significant underperformances.

Public and expert opinion, on the other hand, has Max as the second-best driver this season—most likely because, well, he’s Max Verstappen. His raw speed is undeniable. In my personal ranking, I placed him 4th, tied with Oscar Piastri. While I believe Max would improve almost any team he drove for, he has made some uncharacteristic mistakes this season. His crash with Russell at the Spanish GP was egregious, and his results in Bahrain and Hungary were below expectations.

Remember, this is all based on relative performance. As I’ve said, expectations for Max are stratospheric, so these point deductions aren’t due to a lack of quality, but a reflection of the minor issues he’s had this season.

Charles is 6th in our overall rankings, a position largely pulled down by our model. The model ranks Leclerc fairly low for three main reasons: First, expectations were incredibly high for him after the 2024 season. Second, it believes the Ferrari is a very strong car, making top results the standard expectation. And third, it isn’t awarding him many points for beating Hamilton, mostly due to Hamilton’s perceived dip in form at Mercedes last year.

The public and experts, however, have rated Charles as the 4th best driver of the season, just ahead of Lando Norris but behind Russell, Verstappen, and Piastri. Personally, I rated Leclerc as the best driver of the season, tied for 1st place with George Russell. His season hasn’t been perfect, his performance at the British GP is a blemish on an otherwise strong record, but Charles continues to prove he’s an elite driver.

This might be a surprise inclusion in the top 10 for some of you. Our model rates Hamilton highly, largely because his ratings were so low at the end of 2024. Lewis didn’t have a great season last year; he was beaten by his teammate at Mercedes, and many of you—as well as the experts—ranked him at or below 10th place. Our model takes that data, compares it to Hamilton’s 2025 results, and concludes that he is actually outperforming those low expectations. Add to that the fact he’s paired with a very strong driver, and the model has additional certainty that he’s not doing as badly as he’s let on.

Remember, our model doesn’t know Hamilton is a seven-time World Champion. It only knows what happened last season and how F1 fans and experts rated him.

Looking at the ratings from fans and experts, Lewis is ranked 8th, which isn’t far off from our own result. Personally, I have him in 9th place, below Hülkenberg and tied with Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso.

Nico Hülkenberg is consistently rated in the 7th to 9th range across the board. Our model places him 9th, the public and experts have him in 7th, and I rank him 8th.

There isn’t much controversy when it comes to Hülkenberg; he’s a Formula 1 veteran who consistently delivers strong results. While his podium at Silverstone was the highlight of a strong season, his 5th place in Spain and 7th in Australia prove it was no coincidence. Rather, it was the result of the hard work he and Sauber have put in all year.

Oliver Bearman might be another controversial name in these mid-season rankings. I’m sure many of you will think he’s ranked too high, and while you may be right, let me explain the reasoning. Our model places Bearman 9th, largely because even though he’s finished 11th and out of the points on several occasions, our simulations show him frequently finishing 10th or higher.

It’s the model’s way of saying, “Perhaps he’s been a bit unlucky, and in another universe, he would have scored more points.” Additionally, the model gives rookies some leeway; since expectations are lower, it provides a slight boost to their rating compared to more experienced drivers.

In contrast, the public, experts, and I have based our rankings more on his actual results, perhaps overlooking how many times he was on the cusp of scoring. The combined public and expert ranking has Bearman in 14th place (though almost tied with Pierre Gasly), while my personal ranking puts him at 13th, tied with Lance Stroll.

Pierre Gasly is tied with Oliver Bearman in 9th place. Our model ranked Gasly surprisingly low, which I believe is a similar case to Leclerc’s: his strong 2024 ratings set expectations for the 2025 season that were perhaps too high to meet.

Still, this is a perfect example of why we use an ensemble rating system rather than relying on a single source. Gasly’s low score from the model is balanced by an average rating from the public and experts, as well as a high mark in my personal opinion. In this case, no single factor overpowers the others, leading to a stable and well-rounded final result.

Just behind Gasly, we find his ex-teammate, Esteban Ocon. The Frenchman is a tiny 0.1 points behind both Gasly and his own current teammate, Oliver Bearman.

Our model ranks Ocon behind Bearman, but as we’ve noted, it gives extra leeway to rookies still getting the hang of Formula 1. The public and experts rated Ocon as the 9th best driver of the season, placing him just below Hamilton but ahead of Hadjar and Alonso. I tend to agree with them, ranking Ocon 9th myself, tied with Hamilton and Fernando Alonso.

Isack Hadjar started the season very strong but has struggled more in the second half. While his results are still quite good, his last few races have definitely cost him places in these mid-season rankings.

Hadjar is an interesting case because there’s a strong consensus around his position. Our model ranks him near the middle of the pack, which is very similar to where the public and experts have him. I rated him slightly lower, but not by much, so his final 12th-place spot—surrounded by other competitive drivers—is quite stable.

Tied with Isack Hadjar, we have the old fox himself, Fernando Alonso. The veteran Spaniard has had an interesting season so far; the first eight races were largely a write-off, but recent outings have been much stronger, with the AMR25 looking far more competitive.

When it comes to the score, our model ranks Alonso near the bottom of the list. “Outrageous!” I hear you say, but let’s look at the logic. The model sees the 2024 ratings, where Alonso was considered a dependable driver with a strong reputation. At the same time, it sees Lance Stroll ranked as one of the worst drivers on the grid. Fast forward to 2025, the model observes that Alonso and Stroll have almost identical results. So, it adjusts accordingly: Alonso’s score is lowered while Stroll’s is increased.

The model is essentially asking, “If he’s that good, why isn’t he beating his teammate?”

The public and experts, however, have ranked Alonso 11th—a spot I agree with. The final weighted average puts him in 12th place overall, which feels quite reasonable.

Lance Stroll lands in 14th place in our rankings, just behind his teammate, Fernando Alonso. Interestingly, they are tied on points so far this season with 26 each. Because he’s keeping pace with a highly reputable teammate, our model concludes that Lance Stroll is actually doing a good job.

The public and experts were much harsher in their assessment, ranking Stroll as the 17th best driver, near the bottom of the list. I rated him as the 14th best, which means we have three very different opinions from our three sources. Once again, this shows the strength of our ranking method; by combining these perspectives, we get a more stable result than you could from just “eye-balling it.”

Kimi Antonelli started the season strong, showing good pace and impressive composure for a rookie. As the season has progressed, however, his year has been defined by extreme highs and lows, lacking the consistency you’d expect from a veteran. Granted, Kimi is a young driver, so an adaptation period is expected. Still, his results have been less than stellar, especially considering the strength of the Mercedes W16.

Our model ranks Kimi Antonelli in 11th, giving him the benefit of the doubt as a rookie. The public and experts place him just one spot behind in 12th, below Alonso but above Gasly. I was his harshest critic in this scenario, ranking him 17th. While I fully understand he’s a rookie who needs time, I feel his results are the weakest among the newcomers, particularly when you factor in the strength of his car.

Tied with Kimi Antonelli is another rookie, Gabriel Bortoleto. The Brazilian driver has started to make an impact in recent weeks, clearly aided by a Sauber car that is getting stronger as the season progresses. Gabriel has been particularly impressive in qualifying against a fast teammate like Nico Hülkenberg, and while his race results haven’t always matched that pace, he has shown clear glimpses of his talent.

The model and the public/expert opinion are closely aligned, ranking Gabriel 16th and 15th, respectively. I was a bit more generous, placing him in 12th. Recency bias likely plays a role in my higher rating, which is another case where the model helps balance the natural enthusiasm of being a fan with its own impartial, data-driven perspective.

Perhaps one of the most controversial names this season, Liam Lawson finds himself in 17th place in our tri-factor power rankings. Liam had a nightmare start to the season, struggling badly as Max Verstappen’s teammate before being demoted to Racing Bulls after just two races. While he hasn’t fully recovered from that rough start, his results have improved recently. He’s looking much more competitive and now sits just two points behind his teammate.

The public, experts, and I all rate Lawson quite low. And while the model rates him higher, it’s not enough to overcome what has been a difficult season for the New Zealander.

Let me start by saying that I don’t think Doohan was given a fair shot. Six races is simply not enough for a rookie to show what they have in the tank. We’ve seen how volatile rookie seasons can be: Antonelli and Hadjar started strong but are now struggling, while Bortoleto started slow and is now finding his speed. That said, we have to rate Jack based on those six races, which is a difficult task. I think he could have shown more and looked quite clumsy at times, but it’s hard to pile on a driver who was dropped just a quarter of the way through the season.

Our model doesn’t have enough data to get a clear read on his performance, so it’s essentially making predictions with high uncertainty. In this case, the public and expert rankings, along with my own opinion, are doing the heavy lifting. The public has Doohan almost at the bottom of the list in 20th place, just ahead of Franco Colapinto, the driver who replaced him. I rated Doohan 18th, which is still low but also ahead of Franco. The model places him up in 13th, but it’s crucial to remember this comes from very limited data, so that ranking should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

What could have been a dream season for Yuki Tsunoda has turned into a nightmare. Driving for Red Bull is a daunting task, and one he has clearly struggled with. The Japanese driver has looked lost at times next to Verstappen, amassing just 10 points across 14 races and three sprints, leaving him near the bottom of the Championship standings.

While it’s true the RB21 isn’t the dominant car it was in 2023, the results have still been subpar. Yuki has only shown fleeting glimpses of speed, and though his qualifying performances have improved recently, the overall results are not good enough for a driver who wants to stay at one of Formula 1’s top teams.

Our statistical model ranks Tsunoda 20th out of 21 drivers. The public and expert ratings place him 19th, while I personally rated him 20th.

Franco Colapinto was the subject of much praise last year. As a late-year replacement for Sargeant, he had strong races with Williams before repeatedly crashing and costing the team millions of dollars. This season, while less chaotic, has also shown less of the raw speed we saw from him in 2024.

The Argentinian has struggled badly in 2025. He has been completely eclipsed by his teammate, Pierre Gasly, and hasn’t established himself as a massive upgrade over his predecessor, Jack Doohan. His best results are a pair of 13th-place finishes in Monaco and Canada, and he remains the only active driver with no points to his name.

Regarding his ranking, our model has Colapinto in 19th place, the public and experts have him in 21st, and I also ranked him 19th. Pretty much the expected result for a struggling driver.

We’ve saved the most surprising ranking of the season for last. Carlos Sainz lands in 21st place—dead last—in our tri-factor power rankings. After leaving Ferrari for Williams last year, many were left wondering why he wasn’t hired by a top team like Red Bull. The vast majority of pundits and fans praised Carlos in 2024, rating him as one of the best drivers in Formula 1. Many, myself included, believed Sainz would start the season strong and eventually get the upper hand on his teammate, Alex Albon. The reality could not be more different.

Carlos has just 16 points compared to Albon’s 54 and has shown none of the speed that made him such a strong competitor to the notoriously fast Charles Leclerc. In my opinion, Carlos has been the most disappointing driver of the season so far. I ranked him in last place, tied with Yuki Tsunoda. While the model also ranked him dead last, it gave him an even worse score than I did. The public and expert ratings were a bit more lenient, placing Sainz in 16th.

“Why the harsh rating?” you might be asking. I think the answer is quite simple: Carlos is a veteran who has competed at the top of the sport for years. He had a brilliant 2024 season and seemed to have the world at his feet, and yet, he’s looked completely out of place at Williams. I believe he will show much more of his talent in the second half of the season, but for these first 14 races, the results have been deeply disappointing.

Summarized power rankings

Conclusion

And so that wraps up our 2025 mid-season power rankings. The whole idea behind this tri-factor system was to look beyond the raw championship standings and create a more nuanced, holistic view of driver performance—and I think the final list certainly delivered on that.

By focusing purely on performance versus expectation, it gave us some of our most controversial results, like ranking Verstappen and Alonso surprisingly low while seeing hidden value in drivers like Hamilton. It’s a cold, hard look at the data, completely free of the human biases that we fans (myself included) bring to the table.

On the other hand, the human element—both from the public and my own ratings—brought in the context that numbers can miss. Our model is not perfect, and the human element cannot be replaced. Still, in some cases, all of the elements will converge to reach a single conclusion. We saw that with drivers like Hülkenberg, where all three sources came to a consensus, and with rookies like Bearman and Doohan, where the uncertainty of a short career makes the “eye test” so important.

Ultimately, this process gives us a list with Oscar Piastri at the top and Carlos Sainz at the very bottom—a result I’m sure almost no one would have predicted back in March. It shows just how much expectations, car performance, and consistency shape our perception of a driver’s season.

Now I want to hear from you. What was the most surprising ranking on this list for you? Who is too high, who is too low, and who did we get just right? Let me know in the comments below.

My plea

Just as I’ve started doing in the recent weeks, this is another advanced article in which I embraced statistical modelling to take my analyses to the next level. Doing inference with statistical models isn’t easy—it takes a lot of time to develop a useful and reliable model capable of producing meaningful insights. Creating this model and writing this article took me dozens of hours. If you’ve enjoyed reading it, please consider becoming a supporter to help me continue writing in-depth articles like this one. Your support truly makes a difference and helps keep the blog going. Thank you!